Scott Burns' review of
The Intelligent Asset Allocator
by William Bernstein
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“Is there some way to tweak the Couch Potato Portfolio, to make it sexier,
to take it to the next level?” |
That’s the most common question readers have about the Couch Potato Portfolio,
my tool for the incurious and slothful who want to manage their money with
as little time, effort and expense as possible, but still get life-sustaining
results. |
There is. |
The sexy next level comes from William Bernstein, an Oregon neurologist
who has pursued his hobby of statistics and portfolio theory with such
passion that he first created an online publication, Journal of the Efficient
Frontier, then started writing for outfits like Morningstar, and now has
published a book, “The Intelligent Asset Allocator” (McGraw-Hill,
$29.95) — all in his proverbial “spare time, at home.” |
While not intended as beach reading, Bernstein’s book makes such
direct and lucid connections between statistical analysis, probability
and the workings of investment management that anyone who would like to
know about the connection without actually doing the work should read it. |
Dozens of investment books cross my desk every year; few are retained,
let alone mentioned in my column. But Bernstein’s book is a keeper
— something that should be in the basic library of every serious investor. |
So what’s the basic idea? |
Build your portfolio with multiple classes of assets, invest entirely in
index funds because professional stock and bond picking is a waste of time
and money, and rebalance your portfolio regularly so it maintains its original
propertion for each asset class. |
While Bernstein himself is an admitted “asset-class junkie,” wanting
as many asset types in his portfolio as possible, his easiest model portfolio
is a mixture of four types of assets:
• U.S. large
stocks, such as the stocks in the S&P 500 index;
• U.S. small stocks,
such as the stocks in the Russell 2000 index;
• foreign stocks,
such as the stocks in the EAFE index;
• and U.S. short-term
bonds.
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All four of these classes are available as inexpensive, no-load mutual
funds. Bernstein says, “if history is any guide, a portfolio divided
equally among these four assets will most likely outperform the overwhelming
majority of investment professionals over the next few decades.” |
Skeptical readers are likely to wonder how foreign stocks could compete,
since they have wrecked diversified portfolios for more than five years.
They might also wonder about small stocks, knowing that the Russell 2000
index has trailed the S&P 500 index by 5.5 percent a year, compounded,
for the past 15 years. |
In fact, Bernstein shows that while an equal mix of the three equity
classes — the S&P 500, small stocks and foreign stocks — would have
provided wildly different returns from a pure S&P 500 investment in
each of the five-year periods from 1969 to 1998, the mixed portfolio was
within a hair of the S&P 500 over the entire period, 12.50 percent
and 12.67 percent, respectively. |
In turn, the S&P 500 index beat the vast majority of professionally
managed equity funds. |
To visit Bernstein’s Web site, go to http://www.efficientfrontier.com. |
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Questions about personal finance and investments may be sent to: Scott
Bums, The Dallas Morning News, P.O. Box 655237, Dallas, TX 75265; faxed
to (214) 977-8776; or e-mailed to soott@scottburns.com. |